135, 99, 54, 19, and 1. These numbers are familiar to those who watched the results of the 2004 federal election. The numbers were a shock at first. The Maritimes sent five new Liberal MP’s from their region, these were seats the Liberals did not have coming into the election. The ultimate surprise was in Ontario where the Liberals support proved to be stronger than expected. Conservatives won 24 seats in Ontario, a far cry from the 40 plus they expected to win, while the NDP won 7 and the Liberals were victorious in 75 other ridings. The Conservatives however, did mediocre in the west. They lost key ridings in B.C., both to the Liberals and the NDP. The breakdown was as follows, Conservatives won 55 seats, Liberals won 14 and the NDP won 8 with one independent victory. This was a little shocking that the Conservatives did not win more seats. If you combine the amount of seats the PC and the CA had after the 2000 federal election it would be plain to see that the new Conservative party actually lost seats. So with all these numbers how do we interpret the election? What can we take out of this election and what is of value?

These are questions that I have been pondering for a few days now and I am still not sure what to make of it all. One thing is very clear, the people of Canada are really mad and upset at the Liberals, yet they seemed to hate the Conservatives even more, while the NDP was left hanging around grabbing a few remaining seats. We must remind ourselves that the NDP was the only party to make significant gains in popular vote and seats, the bad part about this is they were unable to win the one seat that allowed the NDP to hold the balance of power. Thus the appearance is that the people of Canada still trust the Liberals and Paul Martin to run this country.

How effective will this be is hard to say for now. If 1979 taught us anything, it would be that a minority government, no matter how small or big it is, can not run a government like it was a majority. This leaves Martin in a very difficult position, who will he choose to trust and work with in the next parliament to pass bills, budgets and public policy? My intuition tells me that he would probably work more and more with the NDP and the BQ. Why? First off, throughout the election Marin continually said Harper and his party would be bad for this country, and that he does not support the type of plan that Harper had presented to the Canadian people. It would be very hypocritical if he were to work with them in order to pass legislation. Secondly, in almost every riding, there was a serious case of vote splitting between the Liberals and the NDP. This should lead to the conclusion that a massive amount of people in Canada either supported Martin’s social agenda and the NDP agenda. Also, the vote in Quebec saw the BQ (who is a socialist party in itself) win Liberal seats and the Conservatives were hardly visible in the province. Thus assuming if all of this is true, it would seem that most Canadians approve of a socialist agenda, and it rejects a conservative agenda.

The Conservatives as a whole only received 29.61% of the popular vote and 64.8% of the vote went to the NDP, the BQ, and the Liberals, with the others took in 5.6% of the vote. The main focus here is to note that 70% of Canadians rejected the Conservatives and their views. It is up to Martin then to look at the BQ and the NDP for help. Duceppe said he would work with the government on an issue-by-issue basis and this would have to be the approach the NDP takes. If we learned one thing from the debates it would be that both the NDP and the BQ have similar views of the world and social issues. Thus to pass public policy Martin would have to turn to these two parties to help pass legislation in the house. Martin would not turn to the Conservatives; if the Liberals did this it would not be beneficial for them. History has shown us that a Liberal government who works with a socialist/progressive party will eventually lead them to success. William Lyon Mackenzie King did this with both the Progressives and the CCF in the 1920’s and 1930’s. Pearson did this with the CCF in 1960’s as did Trudeau when he worked with the NDP in the 1970’s. The result of this was a huge victory for the Liberals in the next election. The people of Canada want socialist policies implemented, and they trust that the Liberals, with the aid of the NDP, will create a policy that is fiscally responsible and socially acceptable.

The best part about this parliament is that there is going to be a strong conscience in the house. The NDP will be there to remind the Liberals of their policies and what they promised during the election. The Liberals will not work with the Conservatives, as mentioned above, it would be very hypocritical of Martin to say that Harper is a really bad man for this country, then turn around and work with him. The people would not approve of this and the next election would not be so kind to Martin. Thus Liberals could not afford to work with the Conservatives, but they could afford to work with the NDP and the BQ. Not only is history on their side, but so is common sense. The past 10 years saw our government move to the right of the political spectrum because the strongest opposition came from the right. This time the strongest opposition comes form the left. If Martin works with Layton and Duceppe he may be able to win back the seats he lost in this election (mostly in Quebec). If he doesn’t do this then he is going to be in for a short session and a quick election. This is something he does not want.

To conclude, it would seem that this article is creating a formula that the Liberals should use to win the next election. My main point is that if this is what unfolds in the next election then it is up to the NDP and their caucus to push hard for the social agenda. They should push hard for electoral reform, public healthcare, same-sex marriage, increase access to post-secondary institutes, and create better and stronger peacekeepers. This is a prime opportunity to push the social agenda, yet have an accountable and fiscally responsible government. If this is done and the NDP is able to achieve these goals then next election we may be able to increase our voter support and seats. But if we let this opportunity go by, then the party is in bigger trouble than it was before the 1990’s.

To read Nathan's June column click here

If you have any comments for Nathan you can email him at nathan.willard@ottawacentre.org